24 - 25 August 2009, Nairobi, Kenya
Introduction
The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) countries will experience generally above normal transmission of malaria during the September to December 2009 rainfall season. The malaria workshop, which was held in tandem with the Twenty-fourth GHA Climate Outlook Forum (COF24) from 24 - 25 August 2009 at the Hotel Intercontinental, Nairobi, Kenya, anticipates malaria outbreaks in the epidemics prone parts of the region during the season. The malaria outlook is issued in regard to malaria health risks in the GHA countries, and as a tool for planning and mitigation and should therefore contribute to reduction of malaria health risks in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) countries. The participants were drawn from the health experts and climate scientists as well as users of climate information and products within the region.
The climate forecast, which forms the basis of the malaria outlook, was issued by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and other partners for the GHA sub region comprising Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.
Among the principal factors considered included the evolving Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) observed over the tropical Indian Ocean including the India Ocean dipole, and Atlantic SSTs, the emerging El Niño like conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and atmospheric circulation processes.